Paul Schoemaker's research centers on his recent and forthcoming books. A long standing research interest relates to managerial decision making and builds on his last book with Jay Russo titled "Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time" (Doubleday, 2001). This book extends their earlier work "Decision Traps" (Simon and Schuster, 1990) and examines how managers can improve their problem framing, intelligence gathering and choice procedures, as well techniques to improve learning from experience. The role of intuition and emotion are new topics of interest.

A second major area of research concerns how managers and firms deal with emerging technologies. Much of this research is conducted through Wharton's Mack Center for Technological Innovation, of which Dr. Schoemaker is Research Director. The program's first research phase was summarized in the book, "Wharton On Managing Emerging Technologies" (Wiley & Sons, April 2000), edited by Professors Day and Schoemaker. The next research phase focuses on how best to manage specific technology platforms, specifically innovations stemming from the confluence of life sciences and information technologies (see http://mackcenter.wharton.upenn.edu for details). This was recently published as a 130 page research report titled "The Future of BioSciences" edited by Paul J. H. Schoemaker and Michael S. Tomczyk.

A third area of active research concerns Schoemaker's book "Profiting From Uncertainty: Strategies for Succeeding No Matter What the Future Brings" (Random House, July 2002). This research vein explores the challenges of approaching the future comprehensively rather than piece meal, the value of flexible strategies and options thinking, as well as the importance of dynamic monitoring and real-time adjustment. The focus here is on the challenges managers encounter when dealing with high uncertainty, tools and techniques they can use to navigate the unknown, and organizational mechanisms firms can employ to improve their agility and responsiveness. Navigating uncertainty requires foresight about the future, flexible strategies, agile organizations, real-time knowledge management and above all seasoned leadership to separate white noise from signal and genuine change.

A fourth area of research concerns the evolution of North American credit unions amid the profound changes in financial services. Traditionally, the credit union sector was populated by many small players operating cooperatively with a strong focus on member service. The changing nature if this industry, as it competes with banks and other financial service providers, has been the subject of several research reports by Schoemaker and his colleagues, including "2010 Scenarios for Credit Unions" (2004), "The Chameleon Scenario Revisited" (April 2000) and "Key Success Factors for Credit Unions" (Feb. 2002); see Future Scopes series at www.cues.org. The strategic, managerial, organizational and cultural issues facing credit unions present a microcosm of the challenges all organizations face overall.

A more recent area of research explores how organizations can develop better peripheral vision and scanning capabilities. Building on a conference organized by Profs. Day and Schoemaker at the Wharton School's Mack Center for Technological Innovation, this research addresses how managers can develop a stronger capacity to recognize and act upon weak signals from the periphery before it is too late. Day and Schoemaker edited a special issue on this topic for "Long Range Planning", co-authored a "Harvard Business Review" article on Scanning the Periphery (Nov. 2005) and published a book titled "Peripheral Vision" (Harvard Business School Press, 2006). Day and Schoemaker are currently examining the special role of leadership in creating vigilant organizations, as well as the role of real-time monitoring and being more market-driven.