Besides many articles, Paul Schoemaker has also written several books. His first book Experiments on Decisions Under Risk (Kluwer Nijhoff Publishing, 1980) received a two-page profile in Fortune Magazine. With J. Edward Russo he wrote Decision Traps (Doubleday, 1989; Simon & Schuster, 1990) which discusses various biases in decision making (as profiled in Newsweek). With Kleindorfer and Kunreuther, Schoemaker wrote an acclaimed graduate-level text titled Decision Sciences: An Integrative Perspective (Cambridge University Press, 1993). With George Day, he edited the book Wharton On Managing Emerging Technologies (Wiley, 2000). He wrote Winning Decisions (Doubleday, 2002) with J. Edward Russo and published a managerial book about scenario planning titled Profiting from Uncertainty. Schoemaker's most recent book is Peripheral Vision with George Day (Harvard Business School Press, 2006).

Below you will find abstracts and some further details on these books, as well as a link to order them. Entries marked with an * are managerial in focus; the others are more academic.
Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Peripheral Vision: Detecting the Weak Signals That Will Make or Break Your Company, Harvard Business School Press, May 2006. *

An example of the praise received for Peripheral Vision:

"In this very engaging book, Professors Day and Schoemaker tackle the principle reason for strategic failure - the inability to interpret weak signals. The dominant logic and inertia in organizations are so powerful that leaders must make a conscious effort to overcome the resultant 'vigilance gap.' This book provides a methodology for seeing the 'future and acting on it.' A must-read for managers and strategists."

--C.K. Prahalad, Paul and Ruth McCracken Distinguished University Professor, Stephen M. Ross School of Business, University of Michigan

"Great growth opportunities and dangerous threats are rarely obvious at the beginning. Peripheral Vision is a sound, practical guide that helps managers to determine which developments on the periphery of their corporate vision they can safely ignore, and which ones pack the disruptive potential to fundamentally change the world in which they compete."

--Clayton M. Christensen, Robert and Jane Cizik Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School






Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Profiting From Uncertainty: Strategies For Succeeding No Matter What The Future Brings, Free Press, July 2002. *

An example of the praise received for Profiting from Uncertainty:

"Paul Schoemaker belongs to an extremely exclusive club -- the one for business authors who are both leading edge practitioners and academic researchers. As a result, 'Profiting from Uncertainty' is an extraordinary book that offers eminently practical, yet theoretically pure, advice for managers in these uncertain times."

--Hugh Courtney, Ph.D., McKinsey Consultant and author of 20/20 Foresight






Russo, J. Edward and Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time, Doubleday, Nov. 2001. *

Some of the praise received for Winning Decisions:

"In Winning Decisions, Jay Russo and Paul Schoemaker shed much-needed light on one of the most complex processes we go through every day. Exhaustively researched yet written with clarity and verve, it offers tools, skills, lessons, and insights that you will not find in any other publication. This is a book that will benefit manager and executive, whatever their field."

--Ken Blanchard, coauthor, The One Minute Manager©






Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul J.H. (eds), Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Wiley, April 2000. *

Some of the praise received for Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies:

"Assessing new technologies and anticipating their future impact on the process of due discovery is a critical element of success in the pharmaceutical industry. In today's era of dislocating, fast-moving progress, this book is an invaluable guide, filled with meaningful insights from experienced authors known for their excellent track record. A must read."

--Jean-Pierre Garnier, Chief Executive Officer, GlaxoSmithKline






Kleindorfer, Paul, Kunreuther, Howard, and Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Decision Sciences: An Integrative Perspective, Cambridge University Press, 1993, 470 pp.

Some of the praise received for Decision Sciences:

"A wide-ranging, up-to-date and realistic analysis of the decision making process, from both descriptive and prescriptive points of view. Especially refreshing and valuable is the authors' inclusion of problem formulation and generation of alternatives for choice as crucial elements in decision making, and their emphasis on how limits on information and ability to compute consequences shape the whole choice process."

--Herbert A. Simon, Nobel Laureate, Economics, Carnegie Mellon University







Russo, J. Edward., and Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Decision Traps, Hardcover, Doubleday Publishing Co., 1989, 280 pp. *

Paperback, Simon and Schuster 1990
(Published in British Commonwealth by Piatkus Books under the title: Confident Decision Making; Chinese, Spanish, Portugese, French and Dutch translations have appeared as well).

An example of the praise received for Decision Traps:

"Schoemaker and Russo's ideas are highly praised by Shell managers for their practical value and applicability."

--Ron C. van Beaumont, Head of Senior Management Education, Royal Dutch/Shell Group







Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Experiments on Decisions Under Risk: The Expected Utility Hypothesis, Boston, MA: Martinus Nijhoff Publishing Co., 1980, 233 pp.
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MONOGRAPHS AND SPECIAL REPORTS

Schoemaker, Paul J. H. and Tomczyk, Michael (eds), Scenarios for the Future of the Biosciences, Mack Center for Technological Innovation, Wharton, 2006 (132 pp).*

Day, George and Schoemaker, Paul J.H. (eds), Peripheral Vision: Sensing and Acting on Weak Signals, Special Issue of Long Range Planning 37(2), April 2004 (196 pp).

Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Schuurmans, Franck, and Hofheimer, George, 2010: Scenarios for Credit Unions, CUES, Madison, Wisconsin, 2004 (130 pp). *

Schoemaker, Paul J. H. and Randall, Doug, Managing Uncertainty: A Guide for Credit Unions, CUES, Madison, Wisconsin 2002 (110 pages).*

Schoemaker, Paul J.H. et al, Services for the Aging in America: Four Scenarios for the Next Decade, NY, American Association of Homes and Services for Aging, Oct. 2002 (88 pages).*

Schoemaker, Paul J. H., Hofheimer, George, and Randall, Doug, Key Success Factors: How to Thrive in the Future. CUES, Madison, Wisconsin 2002 (81 pages).*

Randall, Doug and Schoemaker, Paul J. H. and Schuurmans, Franck, 2005: Scenarios for Credit Unions, CUES, Madison, Wisconsin Madison,1999 (69 pages).*

Last update: September 26, 2006.