Articles

Below you will find a chronological list of the various articles and book chapters Dr. Schoemaker has written over the years. Those aimed at managers are marked with an asterix(*) at the end.

 

2016

George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Adapting to Fast-changing Markets and Technologies,” California Management Review (in press).

Schoemaker, Paul J.H., David J. Teece, and Sohvi Leih “Behavioral Dimensions of Strategy” invited paper for a special issue of the California Management Review.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H and Phil E. Tetlock, “Raising Your Prediction Game”, forthcoming  in Harvard Business Review.

Paul J. H. Schoemaker, “Peripheral Vision”, Chapter in Orchestrating Sustainable Innovation: a Symphony in Sound Bytes by Marylin J. Blocker et al, 2015.


2015

Schoemaker, Paul J.H.  “Uncertainty: From Scenarios to Flexible Options”, The Wiley Encyclopedia of Management, Cary L. Cooper (ed), John Wiley and Sons, 2015.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H. and Steven Krupp, “The Power of Asking Pivotal Questions,” MIT Sloan Management Review, Vol 65, No. 2, Winter 2015, pp 36-47.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H, Camelia Ram and Arjen van den Bergh, “How Leaders Can Survive the Next Financial Crisis,The European Financial Review, February – March 2015, pp. 32-35.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H., “Redefining Failure and Success, HandShake, World Bank Group, June 15, Issue 16, 2015, pp. 20-25.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H. and Mark Cecchini, The Six Skills Of Strategic Leaders,” Accounting Today, October 29, 2015.

 

2014

Schoemaker, Paul J.H, “Nelson Mandela as a Strategic Leader” The European Business Review, Jan-Feb 2014, pp. 48-52.

Amit, Raphael and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Firm Resources”, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, Mie Augier and David Teece (eds), 2014.

Schoemaker, Paul J.H.  “Scenario Planning”, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, Mie Augier and David Teece (eds), 2014.

Russo, J. Edward and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Overconfidence”, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, Mie Augier and David Teece (eds), 2014.

Paul J.H. Schoemaker and J. Edward Russo, “Decision Making”, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management , Mie Augier and David Teece (eds), 2014.

 

2013

Schoemaker, P.J.H., Steve Krupp and Samantha Howland, “Strategic Leadership: The Essential Skills” Harvard Business Review, Jan/Feb 2013, 131-134.

Donaldson, Thomas and Paul J. H. Schoemaker, “Self-Inflicted Industry Wounds: Early Warning Signals and Pelican Gambits” California Management Review, Vol. 55, No. 2 Winter 2013, 24-45.

Schoemaker, P.J. H., George S. Day and Scott A. Snyder, “Integrating Organizational Networks, Weak Signals, Strategic Radars and Scenario Planning”  Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80, 2013, 815–824.

Russo, J. E  and Paul J.H. Schoemaker, “Decision-Making”, The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, Mie Augier and David Teece (eds), 2013.

 

2012

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and P. Tetlock, “Taboo Scenarios: How to Think about the Unthinkable” California Management Review, Winter 2012, Vol. 54, No 2, pp. 5-24.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Brilliant Mistakes: Creating Portals of Discovery” World Financial Review, March-April 2012, pp 72-74.

 

2011

Krupp, S., Howland, S., and Schoemaker, P.J.H., Developing Strategic Aptitude: Leadership in the Face of Uncertainty, Chief Learning Officer Magazine, April 2011, Vol 10, No 4.*

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Innovating in Uncertain Times: 10 Lessons for Green Technologies” MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring 2008, Vol. 52, No. 4, pp. 37-45.*

 

2010

Schoemaker, P.J.H.  “A Two-Edged Sword: Implications of Decision Psychology for Decision Analysis,”  Chapter 6 in The Irrational Economist, Erwann Michel-Kerjan and Paul Slovic (eds), Public Affairs, 2010, pp. 53-64.

Day, G. S., Schoemaker, P.J.H., Snyder, S. A., “The Vigilant Organization: Minding and Mining the Periphery, Rotman Magazine, Fall 2010, pp.  34 – 40.*

 

2009

Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Day, G.S. “How to Make Sense of Weak Signals, MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring Vol. 50, No. 3, 2009, pp 81-89.*

Austin, Jim, Fadem, Terry and Schoemaker, Paul J.H., “The Future of The US Medical Device Market” Medical Devices & Diagnostic Instruments Magazine, pp 64-73, January 2009.*

Day, G. S., Schoemaker, P.J.H., and Snyder S. A. “Extended Intelligence Networks: Minding and Mining the Periphery”, Chapter 16 in The Network Challenge: Strategy, Profit and Risk in an Interlinked World, Paul Kleindorfer and Jerry Wind (eds), Wharton Publishing, 2009, pp. 277-295.

Snyder, S.A. and Schoemaker, P.J.H., Strategic Radar: Scenario-based Monitoring and Scanning to Sense and Adapt to External Signals, Chapter 3 in Building Strategic Concepts for the Intelligence Enterprise,  Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2009, pp. 75-93.

 

2008

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Seeing Sooner: How to Scan for Weak Signals from the Periphery” Rotman Magazine, Winter 2008, pp. 64-68. *

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Are You a ‘Vigilant Leader’?” MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring 2008, Vol. 49, No. 3, pp. 43-51.*

Schoemaker, P.J.H. “Rethinking Business Education: The Future Challenges of Business, California Management Review, Spring 2008, pp. 21-27.*

 

2007

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Seeing Sooner: How to Scan for Weak Signals from the Periphery”, Marketing Management, Nov/Dec, 2007. *

 

2006

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Gunther, R. E. “The Wisdom of Deliberate Mistakes,” Harvard Business Review, June 2006, pp. 109-114. *

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Leading the Vigilant Organization, Strategy and Leadership, Vol. 34, No. 5, 2006, pp. 4-10. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Day, G. S, “What’s That You See?, Associations Now, October 2006, pp. 64-70. *

 

2005

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “Navigating Uncertainty: From Scenarios to Flexible Options” inThe Blackwell Encyclopedia of Management, Michael A Hitt and R. Duane Ireland (eds), Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing. III: pp. 190-193.

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Scanning the Periphery” Harvard Business Review, Nov-Dec. 2005.*

Hogarth, R. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., Book Review of Blink, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, (in press).

 

2004

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Forecasting and Scenario Planning: The Challenges of Uncertainty and Complexity, Chapter 14 in Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, D.J. Koehler and N. Harvey (eds), Malden, MA: Blackwell Publishing, 2004, pp. 274-296.

Day, G. S. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Driving Through the Fog: Managing at The Edge” Long Range Planning, Vol. 37, No. 2, April 2004, pp. 127-142.*

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “Using Scenarios in Strategic Planning” Chapter 12 in R&D Meets M&A, by A. Daemmrich (ed), Philadelphia: Chemical Heritage Press, 2004, pp. 81-90.*

 

2003

Schoemaker, P. J. H, “Organizational Renewal: Overcoming Mental Blindspots,” Chapter 2 in The Many Facets of Leadership, M. Goldsmith, V. Govindarajan, B. Kaye and A. Vicere (eds), Financial Times – Prentice Hall, NJ, 2003.*

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “A Reply to: Huygens’s Principle – A Case Against Optimality,”The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol., No. , 2003.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Schuurmans, F. “Opportunity in Uncertainty: Techniques for Turning an Unpredictable Future to Your Advantage” Association Management, 2003, Vol. 55, pp. 49-52.*

 

2001

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Russo, J. Edward., “Managing Frames to Make Better Decisions,” Chapter 8 in S. Hoch and H. Kunreuther (eds), Wharton on Making Decisions, Wiley, April 2001, pp. 131-155. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Elusive Search for Integration,” Chapter 8 in Rethinking Strategy, by H. W. Volberda and T. Elfring (eds.), Sage Publications, London, 2001.

 

2000

Day, G. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Avoiding the Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies,”California Management Review, Winter Issue, 2000, Vol. 42, No. 2, pp. 8-33. *

Day, G. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “A Different Game,” Chapter 1 in George Day and Paul Schoemaker (eds), Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Wiley, April 2000. *

Day, G. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Avoiding the Pitfalls of Emerging Technologies,” Chapter 2 in George Day and Paul Schoemaker (eds), Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Wiley, April 2000. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Mavaddat, M.V., “Scenario Planning for Disruptive Technologies,” Chapter 10 in George Day and Paul Schoemaker (eds), Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Wiley, April 2000. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Shapiro, A., “Innovative Financing Strategies for Biotechnology Ventures,” Chapter 14 in George Day and Paul Schoemaker (eds),Wharton on Managing Emerging Technologies, Wiley, April 2000. *

Day, G. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Don’t Hesitate to Innovate,” Financial Times, Mastering Management Series, Part Two, Oct. 9, 2000, pp. 2-4. *

 

1998

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “Twenty Common Pitfalls in Scenario Planning,” Chapter 25 inLearning from the Future, Chapter 25 in L. Fahey & R. Randall (eds), John Wiley & Sons, 1998, pp. 422-431. *

 

1997

Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Amit, R. “The Competitive Dynamics of Capabilities: Developing Strategic Assets for Multiple Futures,” in Wharton on Dynamic Competitive Strategy, G. Day and D. Reibstein (eds.), Wiley, pp. 368-394.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “Disciplined Imagination: From Scenarios to Strategic Options,” in International Studies of Management & Organization, Vol. 27, No. 2, Summer 1997, pp. 43-70. *

 

1996

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Hershey, J. C., “Maximizing Your Chance of Winning: The Long and Short of It Revisited,” Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Vol. 65, No. 3, March, pp. 194-200.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Marais, L., “Technological Innovation and Large Firm Inertia,” in G. Dosi and F. Malerba (eds), Organization and Strategy in the Evolution of the Enterprise, London: MacMillan, 1996.

 

1995

Schoemaker, P. J. H. “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,” Sloan Management Review, Vol. 36 (2), Winter 1995, pp. 25-40. *
[Top Ten in terms of all-time reprint requests from the Sloan Management Review]

Schoemaker, P.J.H. and Schoemaker, J. A. “Estimating Environmental Liability: Quantifying the Unknown,” California Management Review, Vol. 37 (3), Spring 1995, pp. 29-61. *
[Reprinted as Chapter 11 in Strategic Development, by R.G. Dyson and F.A. O'Brien (eds.), Wiley, NY, 1998]

 

1994

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Hershey, J.C. “CE-PE Bias and Probability Level: An Anchoring Model of Their Interaction,” in B. Munier and M. Machina (eds.), Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 1994, pp. 35-55.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Amit, R. “Investment in Strategic Assets: Industry and Firm-Level Perspectives”, in P. Shrivastava, A. Huff and J. Dutton, (eds), Advances in Strategic Management, JAI Press, Inc., Vol. 10a, 1994, pp. 3-33.

 

1993

Amit, R. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Strategic Assets and Organizational Rent,”Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 14 (1), January 1993, pp. 33-46.
[Awarded Best Paper Prize by the Strategic Management Society - in 2000]

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Determinants of Risk-Taking: Behavioral and Economic Views”,Journal of Risk and Uncertainty , Vol. 6, 1993, pp. 49-73.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Strategic Decisions in Organizations: Rational and Behavioral Views,” Journal of Management Studies, Vol. 30 (1), 1993, 107-129.

Klayman, J. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Thinking About the Future: A Cognitive Perspective,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 12, 1993, pp. 161-186.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Multiple Scenario Development: Its Conceptual and Behavioral Foundation,” Strategic Management Journal, Vol. 14 1993, pp. 193-213.

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and van der Heijden, C. A. J. M., “Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell,” Journal of Strategic Change, Vol. 2, 1993, pp. 157-171. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Russo, J. E., ” A Pyramid of Decision Approaches,” California Management Review, Vol. 36 (1), Fall 1993, pp. 9-31. *
[Reprinted in Decision Theory and Decision Analysis: Trends and Challenges, Sixto Rios (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, MA., Norwell, pp. 53-78][Reprinted in German in the Harvard Business Manager, Vol. 16 (3), 1994]

 

1992

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Hershey, J. C., “Utility Measurement: Signal, Noise and Bias,”Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 52, 1992, pp. 397-424.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Subjective Expected Utility Theory Revisited: A Reductio Ad Absurdum Paradox,” Theory and Decision, Vol. 33, 1992, pp. 1-21.

Russo, J. E. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Managing Overconfidence,” Sloan Management Review, Winter, 1992, pp. 7-18. *
[Translated into Dutch and reprinted in The Holland Management Review, 1992.]
[Translated into Italian and reprinted in Sviluppo & Organizzazione, Bocconi University, Milan, 1993]

Schoemaker, P.J.H. and C.A.J.M. van der Heijden, “Integrating Scenarios into Strategic Planning at Royal Dutch/Shell,” Planning Review, Vol. 20 (3), 1992, pp.41-46.
[Winner of First Prize for Best Case Study in Planning Review during 1992][Reprinted in Peter Lorange (ed.), Strategic Planning Process, Dartmouth Publishing Co. Aldershot, Hants, England, 1994, pp. 43-48]

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “How To Link Strategic Vision to Core Capabilities,” Sloan Management Review, Fall 1992, Vol. 34 (1), pp. 67-81. *
[Translated into Dutch and reprinted in The Holland Management Review, 1993][Reprinted in Strategy: Process, Content and Context, B. de Wit and R. Meyer (eds), West Publishing Co., N.Y., 1994, pp. 252-260.]

 

1991

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Choices Involving Uncertain Probabilities: Tests of Generalized Utility Models,” Journal of Economic and Organizational Behavior, Vol. 16, 1991, pp. 295-317.
[Reprinted in Richard H. Day and Vernon L. Smith (eds), Experiments in Decision, Organization and Exchange, Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1993, Chapter 4, pp. 23-45]

Russo, J.E. and Schoemaker, P.J.H., Decision Traps and How To Avoid Them,”Chemical Engineering, May 1991, pp. 181-185. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “When and How To Use Scenario Planning,” Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 10, 1991, pp. 549-564.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Quest for Optimality: A Positive Heuristic of Science?”, The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1991, pp. 205-215.
[Reprinted in B. Caldwell (ed.), The Philosophy and Methodology of Economics, Vol. II, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., Cheltenham, UK, 1993, pp. 260-270]

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Strategy of Optimality Revisited,” The Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1991, pp. 237-246.

 

1990

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Are Risk-attitudes Related Across Payoff Domains and Response Modes?”, Management Science, Vol. 36, No. 12, Dec. 1990, pp. 1451-1463.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Strategy, Complexity, and Economic Rent,” Management Science, Vol. 36, No. 10, Oct. 1990, pp. 1178-1192.

Russo, J. E. and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Overconfidence Quiz,” Harvard Business Review, Sept./Oct. 1990. *

 

1989

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Preferences for Information on Probabilities versus Prizes: The Role of Risk-Taking Attitudes,” Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1989, 2, pp. 37-60.

Russo, J. E., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Decision Audits,” Across the Board, Dec. 1989, pp. 47-53. *

 

1988

Schoemaker, P. J. H. and Waid, C. C., “A Probabilistic Dominance Measure for Binary Choices: Analytic Aspects of A Multi-attribute Random Weights Model, Journal of Mathematical Psychology, Vol. 32 (2), June 1988, pp. 169-191.

 

1985

Hershey, J. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Probability vs. Certainty Equivalence Methods in Utility Measurement: Are They Equivalent?” Management Science, Vol. 31, No. 10, Oct. 1985, pp. 1213-1231.

 

1984

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Optimality Principles in Science: Some Epistemological Issues” in The Quest for Optimality, J. H. P. Paelinck and P. H. Vossen (eds.), Gower PublishingCo., 1984, pp. 4-31.

 

1982

Schoemaker, P. J. H, and Waid, C. C., “An Experimental Comparison of Different Approaches to Determining Weights in Additive Utility Models,” Management Science, Vol. 28, No. 2, Feb. 1982, pp. 181-196.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Expected Utility Model: Its Variants, Purposes, Evidence and Limitations,” Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 20, June 1982, pp. 529-563.
[Reprinted in B. Caldwell (ed.), The Philosophy and Methodology of Economics, Vol. II, Edward Elgar Publishing Ltd., Cheltenham, UK, 1993, pp. 395-439][Translated into Italian and reprinted in M. Lombardi and R. Tamborini (eds), The Contributions of Cognitive Sciences to Economic Theory, Bologna, in press][Translated into Russian and reprinted in A. Poletayev (ed.), THESIS: Theory and History of Social and Economic Institutions and Systems, No. 5, Moscow, 1994, pp. 29-80.]

Hershey, J. C., Kunreuther, H. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Sources of Bias in Assessment Procedures for Utility Functions,” Management Science, Vol. 28, No. 8, Aug. 1982, pp. 936-954.

[Reprinted in D. Bell, H. Raiffa and A. Tversky (eds.) Decision Making, New York: Cambridge University Press, 1986]

 

1981

Kunreuther, H. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Decision Analysis for Complex Systems: Integrating Descriptive and Prescriptive Components,” Knowledge: Creation, Diffusion, Utilizations, Vol. 2, No. 3, March 1981, pp. 389-412.

Waid, C. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “On the Fidelity of Multiattribute Preference Representations: Some Analytical Considerations,” in Organizations: Multiple Agents with Multiple Criteria, J. N. Morse (ed.), Springer-Verlag, 1981, pp. 447-464.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Behavioral Issues in Multiattribute Utility Modeling and Decision Analysis,” in Organizations: Multiple Agents with Multiple Criteria, J. N. Morse (ed.), Springer-Verlag, 1981, pp. 338-362.

 

1980

Schoemaker, J. A., Schoemaker, P. J. H., and Saukonnen, J. J., “Polysaccharide Accumulation in the Cell Division Defective Mutant Escherichia Coli 15T-R1,” Microbios, 1980, 29, pp. 149-159.

Hershey, J. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Risk Taking and Problem Context in the Domain of Losses: An Expected Utility Analysis,” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 47, 1, 1980, pp. 111-132.

Hershey, J. C., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Prospect Theory’s Reflection Hypothesis: A Critical Examination,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 25, 1980, pp. 395-410.Schoemaker, P. J. H., “On the Indeterminacy of von Neumann-Morgenstern Utility Functions,” Proceedings of the American Institute for Decision Sciences, Las Vegas, November 1980, Vol. 2, pp. 208-210.

 

1979

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “The Role of Statistical Knowledge in Gambling Decisions: Moment versus Risk-dimension Approaches,” Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Vol. 24, 1-17, 1979.

Schoemaker, P. J. H., and Kunreuther, H. C., “An Experimental Study of Insurance Decisions,” The Journal of Risk and Insurance, Vol. 46, 4, 1979, pp. 603-618.

 

1978

Galbraith, J., and Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Technology and Organization Design: A Managerial Assessment,” Chapter One in Studies in Operations Management, A. C. Hax (ed.), North Holland Publishing Co., 1978, pp. 3-40. *

Schoemaker, P. J. H., “Context Credibility and Format Bias in Retrospective Judgment,” Proceedings of the American Institute for Decision Sciences, St. Louis, October 1978, pp. 36-38.